Here's what Happy had to say in post #142..
1) MIASG/DickensCider/Mophead were his top 3 potential mafia..
Notice that immediately after Day2 starts, Dickens Cider & MIASG are on and ready to play all of a sudden after a quiet day one..
maybe some exciting night time conversation between mafia kept them on the board more often than usual..
we're down to 9 (less 1 good and one evil), likely leaving 2-3 mafia.
I may get voted off on day 3 for this if I'm wrong, but I think MIASG & Dickens_Cider are both mafia.. and someone else playing a much better game or not even signing on..
Can't tell about mophead since he's just arrived for day 2..
My play is all circumstantial... First week (Day 1), work was busy and game was slow, got on when I could and contributed when I could.
Day 2 so far, work has been slow and given the information gained from the night phase etc there is more to contribute from.
Happy's analysis is pure speculation as he wouldn't have known who other townies are, just like I don't.
I think anyone who uses that post as fact looks very suss as it was basically his internal thinking at an early point in the game.
Based on your final thoughts there, you're basically saying you think the whole mafia squad are Australians... The statistical possibilities of that happening are ridiculously low, roughly 0.02 of a percent.
Why do I think that's what you're saying? Moon is dead and was a stormtrooper (Aus). You claim I am evil (Aus). You claim MIASG is evil (Aus). You claim the non players are evil, Dirty Rat (Aus), MoroseKitten (Aus).
While all that is very interesting and a tad concerning, it doesn't lead me to think you are evil, unless you are playing the odds, knowing that if you accuse all the Australians, you are bound to get a hit with at least one or 2 of them. Then hoping that will work in your favour later.
The bit that does make me think you're evil is you thinking (or knowing) that there could only be possibly 2-3 mafia left after losing 1.
That means you think there was only 4 mafia max. Which would mean there were 7 townies to start with.
I personally think those numbers would be great, but highly unlikely.
I find it hard to believe the sides would be stacked so unevenly. I think it's more likely to have been 6 town 5 mafia (now 5 town and 4 mafia).